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Me The Geek » Blog Archive » Poll results out: Windows Vista adoption much slower than XP
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05 Jun

Poll results out: Windows Vista adoption much slower than XP


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Voting frequency on the poll we were running, asking readers to input their predictions for Windows Vista adoption percentage for January 2009, was starting to wade, so I decided to close it.

The results are pretty close to what I expected: over 75% of the voters think Windows Vista is not going to surpass the 50% adoption line before January 2009. 50% of the voters think it will not even pass the 30% adoption line. Not bad for any software product (actually, no one has ever done better, right?), but not as good as Windows XP.

Here is a graph distributing the votes along the 100% line*
Windows Vista adoption - poll results

Here is a list of the reasons why I expected Windows Vista to not beat XP. But, in summary, the strongest arguments would be the following.

Operating System fall

The Operating System is losing relevance. Just when Apple and Linux were starting to get everything in place to compete more strongly, the industry is moving onto the next thing: ‘the cloud’ (aka Web2.0).

Hardware requirements

Another reason, for Vista in particular, is that it requires a lot of hardware that is not going to be available for over half of the population. People want to get the most value out of their investments. Why would you change your Pentium 4?

Reviews

And last, reviews for Vista have not been very praising, to say the least. I still have not used it, but I know a lot of people that, having bough a Vista laptop, downgrade it to XP, or installed a Linux.

Some notes on the poll

The voters were anonymous. The component used prevents multiple entries from one single PC, but of course, someone could have taken the time to hack it. I do not think that it is the case.

*Some arbitrary distribution with no formal statistics justification was made on the defined segments for the purpose of graphically showing the results over an evenly distributed line.

There were 93 votes. So 92 thank yous go out to my graceful readers!

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